Fall 2006/ Spring 2007

A.P. Statistics

Course Description

Welcome to statistics. You are about to enter a world into which most people do not have the fortune, the pleasure, or the desire to experience. To take this course while you are in high school is quite an accomplishment. This full year A.P. Statistics course is equivalent to the first semester of college statistics. In many ways this course will be taught as a college course. The content and pace may be both difficult and challenging at times, but we will do our best to make it bearable and hopefully even enjoyable. The advantage of taking this course at THS is that you have a lot of in class time, a small class size, and an accessible teacher. However, this does not make the material easier; it only gives you additional support as you are learning it. Be prepared to work hard this year.

The content of the A.P. Statistics is defined by the Advanced Placement Program, and is reflected in the A.P. test. The curriculum develops and changes with time. Our content topics will be

Ø Exploratory Analysis (20% - 30% of the examination)

In examining distributions of data, student should be able to detect important characteristics, such as shape, location, variability, and unusual values. From careful observations of patterns in data, students can generate conjectures about relationships among variables. The notion of how one variable may be associated with another permeates almost all of statistics, from simple comparisons of proportions through linear regression. The difference between association and causation must accompany this conceptual development throughout.

Ø Planning and Conducting a Study (10% - 15% of the examination)

If data are to be collected to provide an answer to a question of interest, a careful plan must be developed. Both the type of analysis that is appropriate and the nature of conclusions that can be drawn from that analysis depend in a critical way on how the data was collected. Collecting data in a reasonable way, through either sampling or experimentation, is an essential step in the data analysis process.

Ø Anticipating Patterns Through Probability (20% - 30% of the examination)

Random phenomena are not haphazard: they display an order that emerges only in the long run and is described by a distribution. The mathematical description of variation is central to statistics. The probability required for statistical inference is not primarily axiomatic or combinatorial, but is oriented towards using probability distributions to describe data.

Ø Statistical Inference (30% - 40% of the examination)

Models and data interact in statistical work: models are used to draw conclusions from data, while data are allowed to criticize and even falsify the model through inferential and diagnostic methods. Inference from data can be thought of as the process of selecting a reasonable model, including a statement in probability language, of how confident one can be about the selection.

Since the graphing calculator can do most all of the calculations for statistics the focus of the A.P. Exam has been on the understanding of the different statistical tests.

Our textbook this year will be The Practice of Statistics 2^nd Edition by Yates, Moore, and Starnes. This text was specifically written for this course. We will use this textbook but will supplement with other materials and text, which I think, will enhance the course. We will cover most of chapters 1 – 14 in the text as we prepare for the A.P. Exam in May.

I will be available for extra help before school, during tutorial on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, and after school when needed. During these times my room will be available to you to use for studying and hanging out, as long as you are respectful of others who are there. I strongly advise you to make informal study groups immediately; the best way to learn statistics is to work together. I also expect you to come to me for help as soon as you feel you need to, even on the first day of class. I may not be able to answer all of your questions or go over all of the homework questions in class, so you must take advantage of times outside of class when I am available. The worst thing you can do in an A.P. course is fall behind and/or get lost. I will do everything in my power to help you avoid that, but ultimately it is your responsibility.

Course Outline:

Organizing Data: Looking for Patterns and Departures from Patterns

Chapter 1: Exploring Data

Approx # of Days	AP statistics Course Topic Outline	Topics and Activities	Projects
5		1.1 - Displaying Distributions with graphs
		· Course overview Policies and Expectations Categorical & Quantitative variables	Head Size vs. IQ
	1C.1, 2, 3 1D.1 1E.4	Bar Graphs & Pie Charts
	1C.1, 2, 3	Dot Plots & Stemplots	Water Bucket Activity
	1A.4	Histograms and Introduction to Shape	Heartbeats
	1B.3 1C.4 1E.3	Shape, Ogives, Time Plots
6		1.2 - Describing Distributions with Numbers
	1B.1	· Measures of Center	Housing Prices
	1A.3 1B.4	· Boxplots and Outliers	Devastating Shipwrecks
	1A.1, 2 1B.2	· Standard Deviation Center & Spread
	1B.5	· Linear Transformations Comparing Distributions
		· Review & Test

Chapter 2: The Normal Distributions

Approx # of Days	AP statistics Course Topic Outline	Topics and Activities	Projects
2		2.1 - Density Curves and the Normal Distributions
	3C.1	Density Curves Normal Distribution	A Fine-Grained Distribution
	3C.2, 3	Normal distributions 68 – 95 – 99.7 Rule	Professor Blue
4		2.2 - Standard Normal Calculations
	1B.3 3C.2	Standard Normal Distribution Standardizing & Z - Scores	Women Heights
		Assessing Normality Normal Probability Plot
		Review & Test

Chapter 3: Examining Relationships

Approx # of Days	AP statistics Course Topic Outline	Topics and Activities	Projects
2		3.1 - Scatterplots
		Response & Explanatory Variables Scatterplots	SAT/ ACT Scores
	1D.1	Scatterplots Cont. Positive/Negative Association Adding Categorical Variables to Scatterplots	Vietnam Draft Video
1		3.2 - Correlation
	1D.2	Correlation	Fathom Activity
5		3.3 - Least Squares Regression
	1D.3	Least Squares Regression Line	Mission Impossible
		The Role of r² in Regression
	1D.4	Residuals Residual Plots Outliers and Influential Observations
		Review and Test

Chapter 4: More on Two Variable Data

Approx # of Days	AP statistics Course Topic Outline	Topics and Activities	Projects
2		4.1 - Transforming Relationships
	1D.5	Transforming Relationships Power Transformations	Modeling the spread of cancer in the body
	1D.5	Exponential Transformations Logarithmic Transformations Power Law Models	Kepler’s 3^rd Law
2		4.2 - Cautions about Correlation and Regression
		Extrapolation Lurking Variables Confounding Variables	Train Car Activity
2		4.3 - Relations in Categorical Data
	1E.2 1E.3	Two Way Tables Marginal & Conditional Distributions Simpson’s Paradox
		Review & Test

Producing Data: Samples, Experiments, and Simulations

Chapter 5: Producing Data

Approx # of Days	AP statistics Course Topic Outline	Topics and Activities	Projects
2		5.1 - Designing Samples
	2A.1, 2 2B.2, 3	Samples and Surveys Population, Census, Voluntary Response, Bias	Class Survey
	2B.1, 4	SRS Probability Sample Stratified Sample Random Digits	School Survey
2		5.2 – Designing Experiments
	2A.3, 4 2C. 1, 2, 3	Experimental Units, Subjects, Treatments Comparative Experiments
	2C. 4, 5	Randomization Experimental Design Double Blind Matched Pairs Design Block Design	Taste Test
3		5.3 – Simulating Experiments
	2D	Simulations Calculator Simulations
		Review & Test

Probability: Foundations for Inference

Chapter 6: Probability: The Study of Randomness

Approx # of Days	AP statistics Course Topic Outline	Topics and Activities	Projects
1		6.1 – The Idea of Probability
	3A.1	Probability Introduction	The Spinning Wheel
2		6.2 – Probability Models
		Probability Models Multiplication Principle